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Consensus

01/31/2017 - 09:15 PM

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The attached table shows the consensus data calculated as the arithmetic average of the most recent estimates made by certain independent analysts (*) of Telecom Italia‘s key financial data.
The consensus estimates contained in this table are for informational purposes only and constitute neither a recommendation nor a solicitation or invitation to buy, sell or maintain the availability of Telecom Italia or the Group companies financial instruments.
The data set forth below represents forecasts made by these independent analysts and do not represent opinions, forecasts or estimates of Telecom Italia or of its management.
Telecom Italia takes no responsibility for the completeness and reliability of the consensus estimates reported in the table.


(*) Please note that the consensus estimates where provided by only some of the analysts covering Telecom Italia.

Analysts Consensus on TI Group  4Q'16 and FY'17-'19 Plan as of January 31st, 2017

    Unaudited revised 2015 on Q4 FY         Consensus   Consensus FY'17-FY'19
REVENUES (€mln)   1Q'15 2Q'15 3Q'15 4Q'15 FY'15   1Q'16 2Q'16 3Q'16 4Q'16 YoY   FY'17 YoY   FY'18 YoY FY'19 YoY
Domestic   3.631 3.744 3.752 3.874 15.001   3.548 3.699 3.789 3.851 -0,6%   14.770 -0,8%   14.736 -0,2% 14.746 0,1%
o/w Wireline Domestic   2.657 2.688 2.645 2.664 10.654   2.553 2.578 2.643 2.610 -2,0%   10.186 -1,9%   10.107 -0,8% 10.071 -0,4%
o/w Fixed Services   2.595 2.614 2.592 2.572 10.372   2.483 2.488 2.499 2.490 -3,2%   9.807 -1,5%   9.747 -0,6% 9.728 -0,2%
o/w Mobile Domestic   1.151 1.236 1.303 1.378 5.068   1.186 1.261 1.300 1.395 1,2%   5.215 1,4%   5.245 0,6% 5.278 0,6%
o/w Mobile Services   1.053 1.109 1.170 1.184 4.516   1.059 1.117 1.183 1.202 1,5%   4.612 1,1%   4.639 0,6% 4.665 0,6%
Brasile   1.412 1.279 1.008 937 4.636   897 961 1.064 1.123 19,8%   4.450 10,0%   4.614 3,7% 4.751 3,0%
Other activities & Elim.   11 24 17 30 82   (5) (4) (10) (6) n.m.   (23) n.m.   (23) n.m. (23) n.m.
TI Group   5.054 5.047 4.777 4.841 19.719   4.440 4.656 4.843 4.968 2,6%   19.197 1,5%   19.327 0,7% 19.474 0,8%
                                         
EBITDA Reported     (€ mln)                                        
Domestic    1.610 1.236 1.679 1.042 5.567   1.461 1.723 1.811 1.703 63,4%   6.884 2,8%   6.985 1,5% 6.997 0,2%
Brasile   416 374 318 343 1.451   258 298 344 403 17,6%   1.482 13,7%   1.571 6,0% 1.633 3,9%
Other activities & Elim.   7 (4) (14) (1) (12)   (7) (7) (3) (3) n.m.   (25) n.m.   (25) n.m. (26) n.m.
TI Group   2.033 1.606 1.983 1.384 7.006   1.712 2.014 2.152 2.103 51,9%   8.341 4,5%   8.531 2,3% 8.604 0,9%
                                         
Non recurring items & exchange rate impact  DOMESTIC  (€ mln)   2 391 53 582 1.028   67 16 56 26     67     57   45  
Ebitda Organic  Domestic   1.612 1.627 1.732 1.624 6.595   1.528 1.739 1.867 1.729 6,4%   6.951 1,3%   7.009 0,8% 7.015 0,1%
                                         
EBITDA Margin   (%)                                        
Domestic   44,3% 33,0% 44,7% 26,9% 37,1%   41,2% 46,6% 47,8% 44,2% 17.3 pp   46,6% 1,6 pp   47,4% 0.8 pp 47,5% 0.1 pp
Brasile   29,5% 29,2% 31,5% 36,6% 31,3%   28,8% 31,0% 32,3% 35,9% -0.7 pp   33,3% 1,1 pp   34,0% 0.7 pp 34,4% 0.4 pp
TI Group   40,2% 31,8% 41,5% 28,6% 35,5%   38,6% 43,3% 44,4% 42,3% 13.7 pp   43,4% 1,2 pp   44,1% 0.7 pp 44,2% 0.1 pp
                                         
                                         
CAPEX    (€ mln)                                        
Domestic **   676 830 791 1.603 3.900   778 797 823 1.413 -11,8%   3.728 -2,2%   3.473 -6,8% 3.128 -9,9%
Brasile   287 350 293 359 1.289   166 242 301 429 19,4%   1.177 3,4%   1.118 -5,0% 1.051 -6,0%
Elim & Adj   1 2 3 2 8   0 0 0 (2) n.m   (2) n.m.   3 n.m. 13 n.m.
TI Group   964 1.182 1.087 1.964 5.197   944 1.039 1.124 1.840 -6,3%   4.903 -0,9%   4.593 -6,3% 4.192 -8,7%
                                         
CAPEX ON SALES (%)                                        
Domestic    18,6% 22,2% 21,1% 41,4% 26,0%   21,9% 21,5% 21,7% 36,7%     25,2% -0,4 pp   23,6% -1,7 pp 21,2% -2,3 pp
Brasile   20,3% 27,4% 29,1% 38,3% 27,8%   18,5% 25,2% 28,3% 38,2%     26,4% -1,7 pp   24,2% -2,2 pp 22,1% -2,1 pp
TI Group   19,1% 23,4% 22,8% 40,6% 26,4%   21,3% 22,3% 23,2% 37,0%     25,5% -0,6 pp   23,8% -1,8 pp 21,5% -2,2 pp
                                         
                                         
ENDING NET DEBT (Adjusted)   27.430 26.992 26.804 27.278 27.278   27.139 27.514 26.735 25.673 -5,9%   25.339 -1,3%   24.172 -4,6% 22.524 -6,8%
                                         
                                         
TIM Brasil in LOCAL CURRENCY (R$ mln)                                        
Revenues Reported   4.551 4.361 4.115 4.115 17.142   3.854 3.820 3.900 4.045 -1,7%   15.730 0,6%   16.323 3,8% 16.847 3,2%
of which services   3.944 3.792 3.782 3.869 15.387   3.618 3.570 3.690 3.789 -2,1%   14.706 0,4%   15.246 3,7% 15.825 3,8%
of which handsets   607 569 333 246 1.755   236 250 210 243 -1,2%   1.035 5,5%   1.120 8,3% 1.098 -2,0%
EBITDA Reported   1.341 1.276 1.285 1.463 5.365   1.107 1.189 1.270 1.459 -0,3%   5.237 1,5%   5.556 6,1% 5.773 3,9%
EBITDA margin    29,5% 29,3% 31,2% 35,6% 31,3%   28,7% 31,1% 32,6% 36,0%     33,3% 0,9 pp   33,9% 0,7 pp 34,3% 0,3 pp
Capex Reported   924 1.184 1.168 1.488 4.764   710 975 1.122 1.567 5,3%   4.182 -5,1%   3.954 -5,4% 3.755 -5,0%
% on revenues   20,3% 27,1% 28,4% 36,2% 27,8%   18,4% 25,5% 28,8% 39,0%     26,5% -1,8 pp   24,4% -2,1 pp 22,0% -2,4 pp
                                         
KPIs - Domestic Fixed                                         
Physical accesses ('000)   12.283 12.080 11.907 11.742 11.742   11.602 11.468 11.368 11.273 -4,0%   10.950 -2,9%   10.770 -1,6% 10.643 -1,2%
Line losses    (196) (204) (173) (165) (737)   (140) (134) (100) (95)     (323)     (180)   (127)  
TI Retail Broadband Accesses ('000) 6.945 6.971 6.984 7.023 7.023   7.067 7.088 7.123 7.196 2,5%   7.399 3,1%   7.636 3,2% 7.872 3,1%
NGN Accesses ('000) 329 450 540 678 678   842 989 1.119 1.286 89,6%   2.186 68,9%   3.223 47,4% 4.531 40,6%
NGN Retail  290 374 435 538 538   672 790 872 987 83,3%   1.598 60,4%   2.243 40,4% 3.042 35,6%
NGN Wholesale 39 76 105 139 139   170 199 247 299 114,2%   588 97,3%   979 66,5% 1.489 52,0%
                                         
KPIs - Domestic Mobile                                        
Total number of lines ('000)   30.140 30.075 30.023 30.007 30.007   29.846 29.742 29.549 29.525 -1,6%   29.232 -0,8%   28.942 -1,0% 28.711 -0,8%
Total User Broadband ('000)   10.480 10.754 11.217 11.513 11.513   11.648 11.775 12.082 12.921 12,2%   13.794 6,8%   14.861 7,7% 15.977 7,5%
Total User LTE (mln of users)   1,8 2,7 3,4 4,4 4,4   5,0 5,7 6,2 7 49,9%   8 27,0%   10 17,5% 11 16,1%
                                         
KPIs -  TIM Brasil                      Actual                  
Total Mobile Lines ('000) ***   75.749 74.600 72.573 66.234 66.234   67.269 63.988 63.247 63.418 -4,3%   61.556 -2,9%   61.695 0,2% 61.925 0,4%
Prepaid 62.735 61.061 58.757 52.654 52.654   53.721 50.229 49.005 48.537 -7,8%   45.291 -6,7%   43.904 -3,1% 42.208 -3,9%
Postpaid 13.015 13.507 13.816 13.581 13.581   13.548 13.759 14.242 14.881 9,6%   15.850 6,5%   17.242 8,8% 19.103 10,8%