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Consensus

03/01/2018 - 09:00 PM

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The attached table shows the consensus data calculated as the arithmetic average of the most recent estimates made by certain independent analysts (*) of Telecom Italia‘s key financial data.
The consensus estimates contained in this table are for informational purposes only and constitute neither a recommendation nor a solicitation or invitation to buy, sell or maintain the availability of Telecom Italia or the Group companies financial instruments.
The data set forth below represents forecasts made by these independent analysts and do not represent opinions, forecasts or estimates of Telecom Italia or of its management.
Telecom Italia takes no responsibility for the completeness and reliability of the consensus estimates reported in the table.


(*) Please note that the consensus estimates where provided by only some of the analysts covering Telecom Italia.

Analysts Consensus on TI Group  4Q17/FY17 & Plan 18-20

             


  Plan 2018-2020 
REVENUES (€mln)   4Q'16 FY'16 1Q'17 2Q'17 3Q'17 4Q'17 YoY FY'17* YoY  2018  YoY  2019  YoY  2020  YoY
Domestic   3.970 15.006 3.647 3.847 3.818 3.979  0,2% 15.291 1,9% 15.214 -0,5% 15.123 -0,6% 15.050 -0,5%
o/w Wireline Domestic   2.721 10.495 2.596 2.700 2.630

2.719

-0,1% 10.640 1,4% 10.620 -0,2% 10.620 0,0% 10.600 -0,2%
o/w Fixed Services   2.494 9.965 2.424 2.508 2.496 2.502  0,3% 9.931  -0,4% 9.902 -0,3% 9.878 -0,3% 9.850 -0,3%
o/w Mobile Domestic   1.432 5.179 1.216 1.301 1.334 1.448  1,1% 5.298  2,3% 5.230 -1,3% 5.138 -1,7% 5.070 -1,3%
o/w Mobile Services   1.220 4.579 1.083 1.145 1.202 1.230  0,8% 4.662  1,8% 4.602 -1,3% 4.526 -1,7% 4.475 -1,1%
Brazil   1.125 4.047 1.181 1.112 1.096 1.113  -1,1% 4.502  11,2% 4.427 -1,7% 4.596 3,8% 4.775 3,9%
Other activities & Elim.   (9) (28) (9) (6) (7) n.m. (19)  n.m. (20) n.m. (22) n.m. (21) n.m.
TI Group   5.086 19.025 4.819 4.953 4.907 5.096  0,2% 19.774  3,9% 19.621 -0,8% 19.696 0,4% 19.804 0,5%
                                 
EBITDA Reported     (€ mln)                                
Domestic   1.703 6.698 1.621 1.740 1.694 1.693  -0,6% 6.723  0,4% 6.997 4,1% 7.003 0,1% 6.998 -0,1%
Brazil   425 1.325 372 390 408 465  9,4% 1.635  23,4% 1.617 -1,1% 1.695 4,9% 1.781 5,0%
Other activities & Elim.   (4) (21) (3) (6) (3) (9)  n.m. (21)  n.m. (15) n.m. (16) n.m. (17) n.m.
TI Group   2.124 8.002 1.990 2.124 2.099 2.149  1,2% 8.337  4,2% 8.599 3,1% 8.682 1,0% 8.763 0,9%
                                 
Non recurring items & exchange rate impact  DOMESTIC  (€ mln)   43 182 24 71 126 81    315    84    59   59  
Ebitda Organic  Domestic   1.746 6.880 1.645 1.811 1.820 1.774  1,6% 7.038  2,3%  7.081  0.6%  7.062 -0,3% 7.058 -0,1%
                                 
EBITDA Margin   (%)                                
Domestic   42,9% 44,6% 44,4% 45,2 47,9% 42,6%  0,3pp 44,0%  -0,6pp 46,0% 2pp 46,3% 0,3pp 46,5% 0,2pp
Brazil   37,8% 32,7% 31,5% 35,1 35,1% 41,8%  4pp 36,3%  3,6pp 36,5% 0,2pp 36,9% 0,4pp 37,3% 0,4pp
TI Group   41,8% 42,1% 41,3% 42,9 42,8% 42,2%  0,4pp 42,2%  0,1pp 43,8% 1,6pp 44,1% 0,3pp 44,2% 0,1pp
                                 
                                 
CAPEX    (€ mln)                                
Domestic   1.311 3.709 631 995 1.551 1.348  2,8% 4.486  20,9% 3.303 -26,4% 3.127 -5,3% 3.002 -4,0%
Brazil   458 1.167 200 230 274 446  -2,6% 1.150  -1,5% 1.046 -9,1% 1.022 -2,3% 995 -2,6%
Elim & Adj   0 0 0 0 - (9)  n.m (3)  n.m. 0 n.m. 0 n.m. (3) n.m.
TI Group   1.769 4.876 831 1.225 1.825 1.785  0,9% 5.632  15,5% 4.349 -22,8% 4.149 -4,6% 3.995 -3,7%
                                 
                                 
CAPEX ON SALES (%)                              
Domestic    33,3%  24,7%  17,3%  25,9%  40,6%  33,9%  0,9pp  29,3%  4,6pp 21,7% -7,6pp 20,7% -8,6pp 19,9% -0,8pp
Brazil    40,7%  28,8%  16,9%  20,7%  25,0%  40,1%  -0,6pp  25,5%  -3,3pp 23,6% -1,9pp 22,2% -3,3pp 20,8% -1,4pp
TI Group    34,8%  25,6%  17,2%  24,7%  37,2%  35,0%  0,2pp  28,5%  2,9pp 22,2% -6,3pp 21,1% -7,4pp 20,2% -0,9pp
                                 
                                 
ENDING NET DEBT (Adjusted)   25.119 25.119 25.235 25.104 26.228 25.339  220 25.339  220  24.020  -1.319 22.331 -1.689 20.008 -2.323
                                 
                                 
TIM Brasil in LOCAL CURRENCY (R$ mln)                              
Revenues Reported   4.044 15.617 3.951 3.943 4.083 4.257  5,3% 16.234  4,0% 17.034 4,9% 17.773 4,3% 18.409 3,6%
of which services   3.842 14.720 3.744 3.750 3.905 4.075  6,1% 15.474  5,1% 16.192 4,6% 16.922 4,5% 17.538 3,6%
of which handsets   202 897 207 193 178 182  -9,5% 760  -15,3% 780 2,6% 798 2,3% 820 2,8%
EBITDA Reported   1.548 5.114 1.247 1.377 1.512 1.758  13,6% 5.894  15,3% 6.234 5,8% 6.580 5,6% 6.875 4,5%
EBITDA margin    38,3% 32,7% 31,6% 34,9 37,0% 41,3% 3pp 36,3%  3,6pp 36,6% 0,3pp 37,0% 0,4pp 37,3% 0,3pp
Capex Reported   1.695 4.502 669 809 1.009 1.661  -2,0% 4.148  -7,9% 4.004 -3,5% 3.908 -2,4% 3.858 -1,3%
% on revenues   41,9% 28,8% 16,9% 20,5% 24,7% 39,0%  -2,9 pp 25.6%  -3,2pp 23,5% -2,1pp 22,0% -1,5pp 21,0% -1pp
                                 
EBITDA Organic   1.548 5.170 1.247 1.377 1.512 1.758  13,6% 5.894  14,0% 6.221 5,5% 6.595 6,0% 6.858 4,0%
    38,3%  33,1%  31,6%  34,9%  37,0%  41,3%  3pp  36,3%  3,2pp 36,5% 0,2pp 37,1% 0,6pp 37,3% 0,2pp
                                 
KPIs - Domestic Fixed                                 
Physical accesses ('000)   11.285 11.285 11.230 11.185 11.137 11.084  -1,8% 11.084  -1,8% 11.033 -0,5% 10.978 -0,5% 10.772 -1,9%
TI Retail Broadband Accesses ('000)   7.191 7.191 7.310 7.419 7.559 7.655 6,5% 7.655  6,5% 8.040 5,0% 8.354 3,9% 8.620 3,2%
NGN Accesses ('000)   1.340 1.340 1.698 2.139 2.578 2.810  109,7% 2.810  109,7% 4.529 61,1% 7.375 62,9% 7.232 -1,9%
                                 
KPIs - Domestic Mobile                                
Total number of lines ('000)   29.617 29.617 29.417 29.952 30.285 30.432  2,8% 30.432  2,8% 30.242 -0,6% 30.031 -0,7% 29.772 -0,9%
Total User Broadband ('000)   12.208 12.208 12.208 12.500 12.969 13.353  9,4% 13.353  9,4% 14.615 9,5% 15.845 8,4% 17.125 8,1%
Total User LTE (mln of users)   7,6 7,6 8,3 9,0 9,4 11  40,4% 10,7  40,4% 13 23,3% 19 44,8% 21 8,0%
                                 
KPIs -  TIM Brasil                                 
Total Mobile Lines ('000)    63.418 63.418 61.868 60.831 59.367 58.634  -7,5% 58.634  -7,5%  57.029  -2,7% 55.949 -1,9% 55.208 -1,3%